A return-to-office mandate does not thin the workforce evenly. It prunes from the top.
Across two studies of S&P 500 tech and finance firms, abnormal turnover rose about 14 percent after a mandate, and the leavers skewed senior, skilled, and female (women left at nearly three times the rate of men). The roles they vacated then took 23 percent longer to fill, 63 days against 51, for no measured gain in profit or market value. The commute was never the cost. The institutional memory that walked out was.
